Proposal to raise transit fares will hurt Oʻahu riders
Increasing bus ridership is one of the most effective ways to decrease traffic congestion, reduce carbon emissions, and lower residents’ transportation costs. Yet, Bill 54—currently being considered by the Honolulu City Council—would do just the opposite. As currently proposed, Bill 54 would increase fares for adult, youth, and other reduced-fare riders (such as low-income, disabled, and kūpuna).
This is just the latest fare increase for TheBus, which raised its rates just three years ago. Proposed transit fare increases would impact fares across multiple rider categories. Adults and youth riders would be especially hard-hit, as these groups would experience a 12 percent rate increase for monthly and annual passes under the current proposal.
Table 1. Honolulu Transit Fare Increases Proposed for TheBus Under Bill 54 (2025)
In addition to the fare increases described above, if passed, Bill 54 would also:
Establish a $0.25 cash premium above the HOLO card single ride fare to incentivize the use of the HOLO card.
Establish one reduced fare price for Senior Citizens, Persons with a Disability, Paratransit Eligibility ID Holders, and Individuals with Extremely Low Incomes.
Restrict eligibility for deeply discounted fares only to Hawaiʻi residents.
Give the Department of Transportation Services (DTS) Director the authority to impose special event single-ride fares for concerts, athletic events, and large community events where non-scheduled transit service is provided, including to and from the Daniel K. Inouye International Airport.
Impacts of Bill 54: Decreased Ridership and Financial Strain
According to DTS Director Roger Morton, the proposed rate hikes are expected to generate about $2 million in additional revenue. These funds will go toward offsetting the deficit that the transit system typically operates at. Currently, DTS collects about $50 million in revenue from passengers, with $11 million coming from cash payments. As such, fare collection contributes minimally (less than 12 percent) to the DTS’s estimated $430 million budget.
However, increased fares come at a cost. Global studies show that when transit fares increase, ridership declines. This dynamic is measured by “price elasticity of demand,” which shows the percentage drop in consumption for each percentage increase in price. For example, in 2019, former DTS Director Wes Frysztacki informed the Honolulu Rate Commission that for every 10 percent increase in fare, there is a 3 percent decline in ridership.
Figure 1. Monthly Ridership On TheBus (2015–2025)
Nevertheless, Honolulu’s TheBus has increased its fares twice within the last five years, which has likely contributed to its slow post-COVID ridership recovery. Based on TheBus Performance Statistics, even before the COVID-19 pandemic, monthly ridership had decreased by nearly 17 percent between 2015 and 2020.
While bus ridership has increased from its low in 2021, the rate is beginning to decline. For example, in July 2025, Oʻahu Transit Services reported an average weekday ridership of 112,882, marking a 1 percent (1,117 riders) decrease from the previous year.
Proposed fare increases will also put a financial strain on riders who desperately rely on TheBus. According to national data, an estimated 30 percent of bus riders have a household income less than $15,000, and 55 percent of all transit riders have a household income less than $50,000.
Economic hardship is prevalent on Oʻahu:
In 2023, approximately 33 percent of all Oʻahu households (110,544) were asset-limited, income-constrained, but employed—or ALICE—an acronym that describes the experience of earning enough to be above the federal poverty level but still struggling to afford basic needs consistently.
An additional 9 percent (31,246) of Oʻahu households live below the federal poverty level ($16,770 for a single adult).
If Bill 54 is adopted, families of four on Oʻahu (assuming two adults and two youth) will pay $2,970 in annual transit passes—nearly 29 percent more than 2021 costs.
Figure 2. TheBus Fare Increases For a Family of Four, 2021–2025 (Bill 54, Proposed)
The steady increases in transit fares continues a long and unfortunate legacy of regressive taxes that hurt low-income residents the most. There are alternative ways to offset the transit system’s financial deficit that do not put the burden on its riders, including federal and state grants, and revenue from the gas tax and road usage fees.
For many, the bus is a necessity. By increasing fares while household budgets are already stretched thin, Bill 54 risks pushing out the very riders who rely on public transit the most.