Tyndall noted Bill 46’s proposed tax rate would be phased in, with 1 percent assessed the first year the property is vacant, 2 percent the following year and 3 percent for years thereafter.

“It’s very similar to a policy that was enacted in Vancouver, Canada, with a similar policy aim: to try to free up homes that were sitting empty,” he said.

The Vancouver policy resulted in a 54 percent reduction in that city’s vacancy rate, and in 2023 the Vancouver empty homes tax brought about $35 million in U.S. dollars from properties that remained vacant, according to Tyndall.

With respect to an EHT in Honolulu, Tyndall said he “is trying to estimate what would be the effect on the number of units of housing that would be generated by this policy.”

“And how much revenue would the county generate,” he said.

Still, he noted there’s much “uncertainty” over the proposed tax.

“And we don’t know exactly how much housing and how much revenue it would generate,” he said, “but the effects seem pretty large regardless of what assumptions we have.”

Others are eyeing Bill 46, too.

The Hawaiʻi Appleseed Center for Law & Economic Justice recommends the city implement a 3–5 percent EHT.

The group says such a tax—levied on properties left vacant for more than six months each year—could generate $183 million to $305 million for the city annually.