Ever since the proposal was first leaked to the press in 2017, critics predicted it would have a chilling effect on legal immigrant families who are eligible for public assistance, causing them to dis-enroll from, or not apply for, benefits out of fear it would jeopardize their family’s immigration status.

Now a new analysis from Hawaiʻi Appleseed Center for Law & Economic Justice has found a 38 percent reduction since 2016 in the number of these children receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, commonly known as food stamps.

“It’s not proof, but these numbers seem to indicate there was a sharp drop-off for SNAP by non-citizens,” said Nicole Woo, senior policy analyst for Hawaiʻi Appleseed.

In a report, the Kaiser Family Foundation said up to 4.7 million people could withdraw from Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program if the rule went into effect, putting their health at risk.

The New York-based Fiscal Policy Institute analyzed the rule’s affect on the country as a whole and has estimated that 110,000 people in Hawaiʻi will experience a “chilling” effect. Among that population: 40,000 Hawaiʻi minors, of whom 30,000 are U.S. citizens by birth.

In addition, the institute said states are at risk of losing tens of millions in federal dollars. In considering only health and nutrition supports—the largest benefits targeted by the rule—the organization projected a 25 percent drop in enrollment in Hawaiʻi and a resulting $66 million loss of federal funds.

Woo said not only will there be fewer federal dollars coming to Hawaiʻi, but there will be fewer program participants spending at grocery stores and other food retailers.

“Hospitals, doctors and nurses will lose income due to a reduction in Medicaid usage. Many other businesses will lose revenue as immigrant families that struggle to make up for the lost nutrition and healthcare benefits shift spending priorities,” Woo said.